tradeval

The planning desk

What it takes to get back

A loss and its recovery are not the same size. Falling 50% takes a 100% gain to undo, because the fall is a share of what you had and the climb is a share of what is left.

Where the position stands

Enter it as

Use whichever you think in — one position, or the whole account. The arithmetic does not care, and neither does the asymmetry.

Down35%$35,000 lost
Needs a gain of53.8%to make back $35,000
7.0%
1%a year20%

Back to $100,000 in 6.4 years

The shape of it

Every row is the same arithmetic. The gap between the two columns is small at the top and absurd at the bottom, and it widens faster than most people expect.

What each drawdown costs to undo
If you loseYou need$100,000 becomesand must climb to
−5%+5.3%$95,000$100,000
−10%+11.1%$90,000$100,000
−20%+25%$80,000$100,000
−25%+33.3%$75,000$100,000
−30%+42.9%$70,000$100,000
−40%+66.7%$60,000$100,000
−50%+100%$50,000$100,000
−60%+150%$40,000$100,000
−75%+300%$25,000$100,000
−90%+900%$10,000$100,000

The turn comes around a third: up to there a loss and its recovery are roughly the same size, and a normal run of good months covers it. Past half, the climb is larger than anything the market delivers in a year, and recovery stops being a matter of patience. This is the argument for a stop that is smaller than it feels like it needs to be — and for the position sizing the checklist grades.

How it is worked out

The gain needed is what is left divided into what you started with, minus one. Falling from $100,000 to $65,000 leaves $65,000, and $100,000 ÷ $65,000 is 1.538 — a gain of 53.8% to recover 35%. The two percentages differ because they are shares of different numbers.

The recovery time assumes the money compounds at the rate you set, every year, with nothing added and nothing withdrawn. Contributing while you recover shortens it; a second fall lengthens it. This counts the position alone, before tax and trading costs, and a realised loss may be worth something against your tax bill — the after-tax gains calculator handles that side.

A rules-based calculation for orientation, not financial or investment advice.

Common questions

If I lose 50%, why do I need 100% to get back to even?

Because the two percentages are shares of different numbers. The 50% fall is measured against what you had; the climb back is measured against the smaller amount you are left holding. $100,000 falling by half leaves $50,000, and turning $50,000 back into $100,000 means doubling it. The loss is a share of the larger number and the recovery a share of the smaller one, which is why they are never the same size.

How much do I need to gain back after a 20% or 30% loss?

A 20% loss needs 25% to undo, and a 30% loss needs about 42.9%. The formula is the loss divided by what remains: 20 ÷ 80 and 30 ÷ 70. Up to roughly a third the two numbers stay close enough that an ordinary good run covers the gap, which is why shallow drawdowns feel survivable and are.

At what point does a loss stop being recoverable?

There is no exact line, but the arithmetic turns somewhere past a third. At half you need 100%, at 75% you need 300%, and at 90% you need 900% — larger than anything the market reliably delivers over a decade, let alone a year. At zero there is no answer at all, because no percentage return multiplies nothing into something. That is the case for a stop that feels tighter than it needs to be.

How long does it take to recover a loss?

Divide the growth needed by the rate you expect to compound at. Recovering a 50% loss means doubling, which at 7% a year takes a little over ten years, and at 10% about seven and a half. The percentage hides how long the climb is; the years make it plain. Adding money while you recover shortens it, and a second fall starts the arithmetic again from the new, lower base.